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Agentes económicos calculan que la economía dominicana retrocederá -2.5 % este año Un

Agentes económicos calculan que la economía dominicana retrocederá -2.5 % este año Una encuesta realizada por el Banco Central revela el deterioro progresivo de las expectativas entre los agentes económicos

Publicado: 04/07/2020

<p>Los agentes econ&oacute;micos no son tan optimistas como el Banco Central de Rep&uacute;blica Dominicana sobre el pron&oacute;stico econ&oacute;mico para este a&ntilde;o. Creen que el efecto de la pandemia ser&aacute; m&aacute;s profundo.</p>

<p>Mientras el emisor estima que el PIB dominicano registrar&aacute; un crecimiento cero al cierre de 2020, agentes econ&oacute;micos nacionales y extranjeros encuestados por el propio BCRD estimaban en junio que el desplome econ&oacute;mico ser&iacute;a de -2.5 % este a&ntilde;o.</p>

<p>Se trata de la peor estimaci&oacute;n hist&oacute;rica que ha registrado el banco central en su Encuesta de Expectativas Macroecon&oacute;micas que realiza mensualmente desde el a&ntilde;o 2007. Para los resultados, el BCRD consulta a investigadores, acad&eacute;micos, analistas de consultoras, bancos, asociaciones mutualistas, puestos de bolsa, grupos y gremios empresariales y representantes de organismos internacionales en el pa&iacute;s.</p>

<p>Las medidas para frenar la propagaci&oacute;n del COVID-19 en el pa&iacute;s, aplicadas entre el 20 de marzo y el 19 de mayo -cuando comenz&oacute; la desescalada- obligaron a los sectores econ&oacute;micos no esenciales a detener sus operaciones. El turismo, la segunda mayor fuente de divisas para el pa&iacute;s, pudo reactivar su actividad el pasado 1 de julio, cuando reabrieron los aeropuertos.</p>

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<p><strong>Lo que tienes que saber</strong><br />
Recibe en tu correo las principales noticias del d&iacute;a.</p>

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<h1 style="font-family: inherit; font-size: 1.6rem; line-height: 1.2; font-weight: bold; margin: 0px; padding-top: 0rem;">Expectativas del PIB para 2020</h1>

<h2 style="font-family: inherit; font-size: 1.6rem; line-height: 1.2; margin: 0px; padding-top: 0.5rem;">(Variaci&oacute;n interanual en %)</h2>
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<p>Los resultados revelan el deterioro en las expectativas entre los agentes econ&oacute;micos encuestados por el Banco Central. Al inicio de la declaratoria de pandemia, en marzo, pensaban que la econom&iacute;a igual crecer&iacute;a 4.2 % este a&ntilde;o, pero con el paso de los meses empeor&oacute; el pron&oacute;stico.</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>Si bien las actividades no esenciales y el turismo fueron detenidos el 20 de marzo, antes de ese cierre total ya la pandemia estaba afectando los ingresos en divisas a trav&eacute;s de la actividad tur&iacute;stica. De acuerdo a los datos publicados por el Banco Central, en el primer trimestre del a&ntilde;o Rep&uacute;blica Dominicana hab&iacute;a dejado de percibir 600 millones de d&oacute;lares, que era el monto total que el gobernador del emisor, H&eacute;ctor Valdez Albizu, estimaba que se perdiera en todo el a&ntilde;o 2020.</p>

<p>Seg&uacute;n los datos de la balanza de pagos, por viajes ingresaron al pa&iacute;s 1,610.6 millones de d&oacute;lares entre enero y marzo, lo que represent&oacute; una ca&iacute;da de 26 % con respecto a los 2,178.7 millones de d&oacute;lares que llegaron al pa&iacute;s en igual periodo de 2019.</p>

<p>En su reporte de Pol&iacute;tica Monetaria correspondiente a junio, el emisor destaca que, aunque fue al finalizar el primer trimestre cuando el pa&iacute;s cerr&oacute; sus fronteras, el impacto de la pandemia ya estaba afectando los viajes en todo el mundo, sin que Rep&uacute;blica Dominicana fuera la excepci&oacute;n.</p>